Black Swan = a statistical term for an occurrence which is unexpected, unpredictable, and carries an extreme impact*
We are in black swan country now. (And yes, that sounds ironic now.) No one could have predicted the current tsunami of racial justice protests and responses. What’s happening now - particularly the confluence of pandemic and protest - is unexpected, unpredictable, and extremely impactful.
Ahz mah, so what then? Learning to recognize black swans is a practice in humility. In black swan country, WE DON’T KNOW. We cannot assume anything based on past experiences, although that is our natural inclination. For example, white people went back to privileged sleep after the passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960s; will that happen again this time? The cynical voice in me whispers yes; but we’re in black swan country now.
I am also aware that the extreme impact of a black swan can be either positive or negative. So for all the optimism about this wave of protests and responses, I am feeling a sense of dread as well, for the safety and well-being of our black sisters and brothers.
*see Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan
We are in black swan country now. (And yes, that sounds ironic now.) No one could have predicted the current tsunami of racial justice protests and responses. What’s happening now - particularly the confluence of pandemic and protest - is unexpected, unpredictable, and extremely impactful.
Ahz mah, so what then? Learning to recognize black swans is a practice in humility. In black swan country, WE DON’T KNOW. We cannot assume anything based on past experiences, although that is our natural inclination. For example, white people went back to privileged sleep after the passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960s; will that happen again this time? The cynical voice in me whispers yes; but we’re in black swan country now.
I am also aware that the extreme impact of a black swan can be either positive or negative. So for all the optimism about this wave of protests and responses, I am feeling a sense of dread as well, for the safety and well-being of our black sisters and brothers.
*see Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan